ESL Challenger League Season 52 Europe Cup 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
Fortress#236 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
37%63%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Permitta#103 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientFortress pick
45%38%
Fortress · 7 mapsedge Fortress +7%Permitta · 4 maps
CachePermitta pick
22%71%
Fortress · 5 mapsedge Permitta +49%Permitta · 3 maps
InfernoPermitta ban
33%50%
Fortress · 8 mapsedge Permitta +17%Permitta · 0 maps
MirageFortress ban
22%57%
Fortress · 5 mapsedge Permitta +35%Permitta · 3 maps
NukeFortress ban
33%43%
Fortress · 5 mapsedge Permitta +10%Permitta · 3 maps
Anubispossible decider
43%50%
Fortress · 3 mapsedge Permitta +7%Permitta · 2 maps
Dust2Permitta ban
50%40%
Fortress · 2 mapsedge Fortress +10%Permitta · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanFortress remove Mirage
2. BanPermitta remove Dust2
3. PickFortress take Ancient
4. PickPermitta take Cache
5. BanPermitta remove Inferno
6. BanFortress remove Nuke
DeciderAnubis (43% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Cacheprediction correct5:13
Fortress 11%Permitta 89%
The model gave 89% on Permitta — the map was taken by Permitta.
Nukeprediction correct3:13
Fortress 37%Permitta 63%
The model gave 63% on Permitta — the map was taken by Permitta.
Model check result
Model favoritePermitta · 63%
Series resultPermitta 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 2