Parken Challenger Championship Season 8 · BO3
result vs prediction
Fortress#236 in the world · win 2:0series probability
40%60%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Sashi Academy#169 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientFortress pick
60%50%
Fortress · 1 mapedge Fortress +10%Sashi Academy · 2 maps
InfernoSashi Academy pick
40%67%
Fortress · 1 mapedge Sashi Academy +27%Sashi Academy · 2 maps
NukeSashi Academy ban
50%33%
Fortress · 0 mapsedge Fortress +17%Sashi Academy · 2 maps
Dust2Sashi Academy ban
60%50%
Fortress · 1 mapedge Fortress +10%Sashi Academy · 0 maps
MirageFortress ban
40%50%
Fortress · 1 mapedge Sashi Academy +10%Sashi Academy · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanFortress remove Mirage
2. BanSashi Academy remove Dust2
3. PickFortress take Ancient
4. PickSashi Academy take Inferno
5. BanSashi Academy remove Nuke
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Overpassprediction correct16:12
Fortress 53%Sashi Academy 47%
The model gave 53% on Fortress — the map was taken by Fortress.
Infernoprediction missed13:5
Fortress 23%Sashi Academy 77%
The model gave 77% on Sashi Academy — the map was taken by Fortress.
Model check result
Model favoriteSashi Academy · 60%
Series resultFortress 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2