ESL Challenger League Season 52 Oceania Cup 3 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
44%56%
probability at match start · final 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
CacheFruju ban
40%43%
Fruju · 1 mapnearly even -3%MARKandLARRY · 3 maps
InfernoFruju pick
33%33%
Fruju · 2 mapsnearly even +0%MARKandLARRY · 2 maps
Dust2Fruju ban
40%50%
Fruju · 1 mapedge MARKandLARRY +10%MARKandLARRY · 2 maps
Miragepossible decider
50%43%
Fruju · 0 mapsedge Fruju +7%MARKandLARRY · 3 maps
NukeMARKandLARRY pick
50%67%
Fruju · 0 mapsedge MARKandLARRY +17%MARKandLARRY · 2 maps
AnubisMARKandLARRY ban
50%40%
Fruju · 0 mapsedge Fruju +10%MARKandLARRY · 1 map
DefaultMARKandLARRY ban
60%50%
Fruju · 1 mapedge Fruju +10%MARKandLARRY · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanFruju remove Dust2
2. BanMARKandLARRY remove Anubis
3. PickFruju take Inferno
4. PickMARKandLARRY take Nuke
5. BanMARKandLARRY remove Default
6. BanFruju remove Cache
DeciderMirage (50% / 43%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction missed5:13
Fruju 53%MARKandLARRY 47%
The model gave 53% on Fruju — the map was taken by MARKandLARRY.
Mirageprediction missed6:13
Fruju 54%MARKandLARRY 46%
The model gave 54% on Fruju — the map was taken by MARKandLARRY.
Model check result
Model favoriteMARKandLARRY · 56%
Series resultMARKandLARRY 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map0 of 2