ESL Challenger League Season 52 Oceania Cup 3 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Rooster#196 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
InfernoFruju pick
29%50%
Fruju · 3 mapsedge Rooster +21%Rooster · 8 maps
AnubisRooster pick
50%62%
Fruju · 0 mapsedge Rooster +12%Rooster · 9 maps
NukeRooster ban
50%36%
Fruju · 0 mapsedge Fruju +14%Rooster · 7 maps
Miragepossible decider
40%44%
Fruju · 1 mapnearly even -4%Rooster · 5 maps
CacheFruju ban
40%71%
Fruju · 1 mapedge Rooster +31%Rooster · 3 maps
Dust2Fruju ban
40%43%
Fruju · 1 mapnearly even -3%Rooster · 3 maps
DefaultRooster ban
60%40%
Fruju · 1 mapedge Fruju +20%Rooster · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanFruju remove Dust2
2. BanRooster remove Nuke
3. PickFruju take Inferno
4. PickRooster take Anubis
5. BanRooster remove Default
6. BanFruju remove Cache
DeciderMirage (40% / 44%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction correct3:13
Fruju 31%Rooster 69%
The model gave 69% on Rooster — the map was taken by Rooster.
Cacheprediction correct6:13
Fruju 19%Rooster 81%
The model gave 81% on Rooster — the map was taken by Rooster.
Model check result
Model favoriteRooster · 55%
Series resultRooster 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 2