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ESL Challenger League Season 52 North America Cup 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
FRZ#399 in the world · loss 0:2
series probability
25%75%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Overtake Sector#143 in the world · win 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageFRZ ban
50%70%
FRZ · 0 mapsedge Overtake Sector +20%Overtake Sector · 16 maps
InfernoFRZ ban
50%53%
FRZ · 0 mapsnearly even -3%Overtake Sector · 11 maps
AncientOvertake Sector ban
50%46%
FRZ · 0 mapsnearly even +4%Overtake Sector · 9 maps
Dust2FRZ pick
50%42%
FRZ · 0 mapsedge FRZ +8%Overtake Sector · 8 maps
CacheOvertake Sector pick
50%63%
FRZ · 0 mapsedge Overtake Sector +13%Overtake Sector · 4 maps
AnubisOvertake Sector ban
50%57%
FRZ · 0 mapsedge Overtake Sector +7%Overtake Sector · 3 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanFRZ remove Mirage
2. BanOvertake Sector remove Anubis
3. PickFRZ take Dust2
4. PickOvertake Sector take Cache
5. BanOvertake Sector remove Ancient
6. BanFRZ remove Inferno
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction correct8:13
FRZ 50%Overtake Sector 50%
The model gave 50% on Overtake Sector — the map was taken by Overtake Sector.
Mirageprediction correct5:13
FRZ 28%Overtake Sector 72%
The model gave 72% on Overtake Sector — the map was taken by Overtake Sector.
Model check result
Model favoriteOvertake Sector · 75%
Series resultOvertake Sector 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 2