ESL Pro League Season 24 · BO3
result vs prediction
FURIA#4 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
78%22%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Aurora#6 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageAurora pick
56%59%
FURIA · 12 mapsnearly even -3%Aurora · 13 maps
CacheAurora ban
47%50%
FURIA · 11 mapsnearly even -3%Aurora · 6 maps
Dust2FURIA ban
46%50%
FURIA · 9 mapsnearly even -4%Aurora · 6 maps
NukeFURIA pick
67%73%
FURIA · 8 mapsedge Aurora +6%Aurora · 7 maps
AnubisFURIA ban
29%62%
FURIA · 3 mapsedge Aurora +33%Aurora · 9 maps
Infernopossible decider
63%55%
FURIA · 4 mapsedge FURIA +8%Aurora · 7 maps
AncientAurora ban
46%40%
FURIA · 9 mapsedge FURIA +6%Aurora · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanFURIA remove Anubis
2. BanAurora remove Ancient
3. PickFURIA take Nuke
4. PickAurora take Mirage
5. BanAurora remove Cache
6. BanFURIA remove Dust2
DeciderInferno (63% / 55%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed13:8
FURIA 43%Aurora 57%
The model gave 57% on Aurora — the map was taken by FURIA.
Mirageprediction missed9:13
FURIA 50%Aurora 50%
The model gave 50% on FURIA — the map was taken by Aurora.
Nukeprediction correct9:13
FURIA 43%Aurora 57%
The model gave 57% on Aurora — the map was taken by Aurora.
Model check result
Model favoriteFURIA · 78%
Series resultAurora 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 3