ESL Pro League Season 24 · BO3
result vs prediction
FURIA#4 in the world · win 2:0series probability
84%16%
probability at match start · final 2:0
BETBOOM#13 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientFURIA ban
50%43%
FURIA · 8 mapsedge FURIA +7%BETBOOM · 3 maps
CacheBETBOOM ban
46%50%
FURIA · 9 mapsnearly even -4%BETBOOM · 2 maps
MirageBETBOOM pick
54%67%
FURIA · 9 mapsedge BETBOOM +13%BETBOOM · 2 maps
NukeFURIA pick
67%43%
FURIA · 8 mapsedge FURIA +24%BETBOOM · 3 maps
Dust2possible decider
46%50%
FURIA · 9 mapsnearly even -4%BETBOOM · 0 maps
AnubisFURIA ban
29%50%
FURIA · 3 mapsedge BETBOOM +21%BETBOOM · 4 maps
InfernoBETBOOM ban
57%50%
FURIA · 3 mapsedge FURIA +7%BETBOOM · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanFURIA remove Anubis
2. BanBETBOOM remove Inferno
3. PickFURIA take Nuke
4. PickBETBOOM take Mirage
5. BanBETBOOM remove Cache
6. BanFURIA remove Ancient
DeciderDust2 (46% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction missed13:5
FURIA 34%BETBOOM 66%
The model gave 66% on BETBOOM — the map was taken by FURIA.
Cacheprediction missed16:14
FURIA 49%BETBOOM 51%
The model gave 51% on BETBOOM — the map was taken by FURIA.
Model check result
Model favoriteFURIA · 84%
Series resultFURIA 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map0 of 2