Esports World Cup 2026 · BO3
result vs prediction
FURIA#4 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
77%23%
probability at match start · final 1:2
FUT#8 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageFURIA ban
60%67%
FURIA · 6 mapsedge FUT +7%FUT · 8 maps
AncientFUT pick
67%71%
FURIA · 2 mapsnearly even -4%FUT · 10 maps
Dust2FUT ban
67%33%
FURIA · 5 mapsedge FURIA +34%FUT · 5 maps
Nukepossible decider
63%29%
FURIA · 4 mapsedge FURIA +34%FUT · 3 maps
OverpassFURIA pick
71%38%
FURIA · 3 mapsedge FURIA +33%FUT · 4 maps
AnubisFURIA ban
29%71%
FURIA · 3 mapsedge FUT +42%FUT · 3 maps
InfernoFUT ban
50%50%
FURIA · 4 mapsnearly even +0%FUT · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanFURIA remove Anubis
2. BanFUT remove Inferno
3. PickFURIA take Overpass
4. PickFUT take Ancient
5. BanFUT remove Dust2
6. BanFURIA remove Mirage
DeciderNuke (63% / 29%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction correct11:13
FURIA 42%FUT 58%
The model gave 58% on FUT — the map was taken by FUT.
Nukeprediction correct13:6
FURIA 82%FUT 18%
The model gave 82% on FURIA — the map was taken by FURIA.
Dust2prediction missed13:16
FURIA 80%FUT 20%
The model gave 80% on FURIA — the map was taken by FUT.
Model check result
Model favoriteFURIA · 77%
Series resultFUT 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map2 of 3