FISSURE Playground 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
FURIA#5 in the world · win 2:1series probability
68%32%
probability at match start · final 2:1
GamerLegion#19 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2GamerLegion ban
54%50%
FURIA · 9 mapsnearly even +4%GamerLegion · 2 maps
Nukepossible decider
64%38%
FURIA · 7 mapsedge FURIA +26%GamerLegion · 4 maps
AncientGamerLegion pick
56%56%
FURIA · 5 mapsnearly even +0%GamerLegion · 5 maps
MirageFURIA pick
64%29%
FURIA · 7 mapsedge FURIA +35%GamerLegion · 3 maps
CacheFURIA ban
44%60%
FURIA · 5 mapsedge GamerLegion +16%GamerLegion · 1 map
InfernoGamerLegion ban
50%40%
FURIA · 4 mapsedge FURIA +10%GamerLegion · 1 map
AnubisFURIA ban
29%50%
FURIA · 3 mapsedge GamerLegion +21%GamerLegion · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanFURIA remove Anubis
2. BanGamerLegion remove Dust2
3. PickFURIA take Mirage
4. PickGamerLegion take Ancient
5. BanGamerLegion remove Inferno
6. BanFURIA remove Cache
DeciderNuke (64% / 38%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Cacheprediction correct11:13
FURIA 32%GamerLegion 68%
The model gave 68% on GamerLegion — the map was taken by GamerLegion.
Mirageprediction correct13:10
FURIA 83%GamerLegion 17%
The model gave 83% on FURIA — the map was taken by FURIA.
Dust2prediction correct13:3
FURIA 54%GamerLegion 46%
The model gave 54% on FURIA — the map was taken by FURIA.
Model check result
Model favoriteFURIA · 68%
Series resultFURIA 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map3 of 3