PGL Astana 2026 · BO3
result vs prediction
FURIA#4 in the world · win 2:1series probability
86%14%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Gentle Mates#38 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageGentle Mates ban
50%50%
FURIA · 4 mapsnearly even +0%Gentle Mates · 4 maps
NukeFURIA ban
43%50%
FURIA · 3 mapsedge Gentle Mates +7%Gentle Mates · 4 maps
InfernoGentle Mates pick
67%63%
FURIA · 2 mapsnearly even +4%Gentle Mates · 4 maps
AncientFURIA ban
50%63%
FURIA · 0 mapsedge Gentle Mates +13%Gentle Mates · 4 maps
OverpassFURIA pick
67%40%
FURIA · 2 mapsedge FURIA +27%Gentle Mates · 1 map
Dust2Gentle Mates ban
33%50%
FURIA · 2 mapsedge Gentle Mates +17%Gentle Mates · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanFURIA remove Ancient
2. BanGentle Mates remove Dust2
3. PickFURIA take Overpass
4. PickGentle Mates take Inferno
5. BanGentle Mates remove Mirage
6. BanFURIA remove Nuke
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction missed13:11
FURIA 40%Gentle Mates 60%
The model gave 60% on Gentle Mates — the map was taken by FURIA.
Overpassprediction missed10:13
FURIA 77%Gentle Mates 23%
The model gave 77% on FURIA — the map was taken by Gentle Mates.
Infernoprediction correct13:6
FURIA 55%Gentle Mates 45%
The model gave 55% on FURIA — the map was taken by FURIA.
Model check result
Model favoriteFURIA · 86%
Series resultFURIA 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 3