DFRAG Open Series 6 · BO3
result vs prediction
FURYloss 0:2series probability
43%57%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Mindfreak#213 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
InfernoMindfreak pick
60%55%
FURY · 1 mapedge FURY +5%Mindfreak · 7 maps
MirageFURY pick
50%43%
FURY · 2 mapsedge FURY +7%Mindfreak · 3 maps
NukeFURY ban
50%44%
FURY · 0 mapsedge FURY +6%Mindfreak · 5 maps
AnubisMindfreak ban
40%50%
FURY · 1 mapedge Mindfreak +10%Mindfreak · 2 maps
CacheMindfreak ban
40%50%
FURY · 1 mapedge Mindfreak +10%Mindfreak · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanFURY remove Nuke
2. BanMindfreak remove Cache
3. PickFURY take Mirage
4. PickMindfreak take Inferno
5. BanMindfreak remove Anubis
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction missed8:13
FURY 60%Mindfreak 40%
The model gave 60% on FURY — the map was taken by Mindfreak.
Infernoprediction missed9:13
FURY 53%Mindfreak 47%
The model gave 53% on FURY — the map was taken by Mindfreak.
Model check result
Model favoriteMindfreak · 57%
Series resultMindfreak 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map0 of 2