IEM Cologne Major 2026 · BO3
result vs prediction
FUT#8 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 1:2
G2#7 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Ancientpossible decider
63%55%
FUT · 4 mapsedge FUT +8%G2 · 7 maps
Dust2FUT ban
50%38%
FUT · 2 mapsedge FUT +12%G2 · 9 maps
MirageG2 pick
33%55%
FUT · 2 mapsedge G2 +22%G2 · 7 maps
OverpassFUT pick
50%71%
FUT · 6 mapsedge G2 +21%G2 · 3 maps
InfernoFUT ban
50%56%
FUT · 0 mapsedge G2 +6%G2 · 5 maps
NukeG2 ban
25%50%
FUT · 4 mapsedge G2 +25%G2 · 0 maps
AnubisG2 ban
67%40%
FUT · 2 mapsedge FUT +27%G2 · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanFUT remove Inferno
2. BanG2 remove Anubis
3. PickFUT take Overpass
4. PickG2 take Mirage
5. BanG2 remove Nuke
6. BanFUT remove Dust2
DeciderAncient (63% / 55%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Overpassprediction correct5:13
FUT 26%G2 74%
The model gave 74% on G2 — the map was taken by G2.
Ancientprediction correct13:6
FUT 61%G2 39%
The model gave 61% on FUT — the map was taken by FUT.
Mirageprediction correct9:13
FUT 29%G2 71%
The model gave 71% on G2 — the map was taken by G2.
Model check result
Model favoriteFUT · 57%
Series resultG2 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map3 of 3