European Pro League Series 7 · BO3
result vs prediction
G2 Ares#103 in the world · win 2:0series probability
77%23%
probability at match start · final 2:0
aAa#132 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2aAa pick
50%29%
G2 Ares · 6 mapsedge G2 Ares +21%aAa · 10 maps
InfernoG2 Ares pick
58%30%
G2 Ares · 8 mapsedge G2 Ares +28%aAa · 6 maps
AncientaAa ban
55%20%
G2 Ares · 7 mapsedge G2 Ares +35%aAa · 6 maps
MirageaAa ban
54%50%
G2 Ares · 9 mapsnearly even +4%aAa · 0 maps
NukeG2 Ares ban
50%27%
G2 Ares · 0 mapsedge G2 Ares +23%aAa · 7 maps
Overpasspossible decider
56%33%
G2 Ares · 5 mapsedge G2 Ares +23%aAa · 2 maps
AnubisG2 Ares ban
67%60%
G2 Ares · 2 mapsedge G2 Ares +7%aAa · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanG2 Ares remove Nuke
2. BanaAa remove Mirage
3. PickG2 Ares take Inferno
4. PickaAa take Dust2
5. BanaAa remove Ancient
6. BanG2 Ares remove Anubis
DeciderOverpass (56% / 33%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction correct13:3
G2 Ares 74%aAa 26%
The model gave 74% on G2 Ares — the map was taken by G2 Ares.
Overpassprediction correct13:3
G2 Ares 74%aAa 26%
The model gave 74% on G2 Ares — the map was taken by G2 Ares.
Model check result
Model favoriteG2 Ares · 77%
Series resultG2 Ares 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 2