Esplay Elite Gaming Cup 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
G2 Ares#97 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
27%73%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Johnny Speeds#57 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageJohnny Speeds ban
57%33%
G2 Ares · 3 mapsedge G2 Ares +24%Johnny Speeds · 2 maps
AncientG2 Ares pick
60%67%
G2 Ares · 1 mapedge Johnny Speeds +7%Johnny Speeds · 2 maps
Dust2Johnny Speeds pick
50%50%
G2 Ares · 0 mapsnearly even +0%Johnny Speeds · 2 maps
InfernoG2 Ares ban
40%60%
G2 Ares · 1 mapedge Johnny Speeds +20%Johnny Speeds · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanG2 Ares remove Inferno
2. BanJohnny Speeds remove Mirage
3. PickG2 Ares take Ancient
4. PickJohnny Speeds take Dust2
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Overpassprediction correct6:13
G2 Ares 47%Johnny Speeds 53%
The model gave 53% on Johnny Speeds — the map was taken by Johnny Speeds.
Mirageprediction missed2:13
G2 Ares 75%Johnny Speeds 25%
The model gave 75% on G2 Ares — the map was taken by Johnny Speeds.
Model check result
Model favoriteJohnny Speeds · 73%
Series resultJohnny Speeds 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2