Esplay Elite Gaming Cup 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
G2 Ares#97 in the world · win 2:0series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Lilmix#191 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageLilmix ban
50%42%
G2 Ares · 4 mapsedge G2 Ares +8%Lilmix · 8 maps
AncientG2 Ares ban
60%63%
G2 Ares · 1 mapnearly even -3%Lilmix · 4 maps
Dust2Lilmix ban
50%22%
G2 Ares · 0 mapsedge G2 Ares +28%Lilmix · 5 maps
InfernoG2 Ares ban
40%71%
G2 Ares · 1 mapedge Lilmix +31%Lilmix · 3 maps
OverpassLilmix pick
40%67%
G2 Ares · 1 mapedge Lilmix +27%Lilmix · 2 maps
DefaultG2 Ares pick
50%40%
G2 Ares · 0 mapsedge G2 Ares +10%Lilmix · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanG2 Ares remove Inferno
2. BanLilmix remove Dust2
3. PickG2 Ares take Default
4. PickLilmix take Overpass
5. BanLilmix remove Mirage
6. BanG2 Ares remove Ancient
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction correct13:11
G2 Ares 61%Lilmix 39%
The model gave 61% on G2 Ares — the map was taken by G2 Ares.
Dust2prediction correct13:7
G2 Ares 76%Lilmix 24%
The model gave 76% on G2 Ares — the map was taken by G2 Ares.
Model check result
Model favoriteLilmix · 53%
Series resultG2 Ares 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map2 of 2