NODWIN Clutch Series 10 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
G2 Ares#103 in the world · win 2:1series probability
67%33%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Lilmix#204 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageG2 Ares pick
56%32%
G2 Ares · 12 mapsedge G2 Ares +24%Lilmix · 15 maps
Dust2Lilmix ban
50%24%
G2 Ares · 10 mapsedge G2 Ares +26%Lilmix · 13 maps
InfernoLilmix pick
53%67%
G2 Ares · 11 mapsedge Lilmix +14%Lilmix · 11 maps
AncientG2 Ares ban
55%41%
G2 Ares · 7 mapsedge G2 Ares +14%Lilmix · 13 maps
Overpasspossible decider
43%55%
G2 Ares · 10 mapsedge Lilmix +12%Lilmix · 7 maps
AnubisLilmix ban
57%40%
G2 Ares · 3 mapsedge G2 Ares +17%Lilmix · 1 map
DefaultG2 Ares ban
50%50%
G2 Ares · 0 mapsnearly even +0%Lilmix · 4 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanG2 Ares remove Default
2. BanLilmix remove Anubis
3. PickG2 Ares take Mirage
4. PickLilmix take Inferno
5. BanLilmix remove Dust2
6. BanG2 Ares remove Ancient
DeciderOverpass (43% / 55%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction missed13:6
G2 Ares 34%Lilmix 66%
The model gave 66% on Lilmix — the map was taken by G2 Ares.
Cacheprediction missed11:13
G2 Ares 53%Lilmix 47%
The model gave 53% on G2 Ares — the map was taken by Lilmix.
Mirageprediction correct13:8
G2 Ares 74%Lilmix 26%
The model gave 74% on G2 Ares — the map was taken by G2 Ares.
Model check result
Model favoriteG2 Ares · 67%
Series resultG2 Ares 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 3