NODWIN Clutch Series 11 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
G2 Ares#103 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Permitta#103 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
InfernoPermitta ban
50%50%
G2 Ares · 18 mapsnearly even +0%Permitta · 0 maps
Dust2Permitta ban
40%50%
G2 Ares · 16 mapsedge Permitta +10%Permitta · 0 maps
MirageG2 Ares pick
60%50%
G2 Ares · 16 mapsedge G2 Ares +10%Permitta · 0 maps
AncientG2 Ares ban
47%60%
G2 Ares · 11 mapsedge Permitta +13%Permitta · 1 map
OverpassPermitta pick
42%50%
G2 Ares · 8 mapsedge Permitta +8%Permitta · 0 maps
AnubisG2 Ares ban
50%50%
G2 Ares · 4 mapsnearly even +0%Permitta · 0 maps
Cachepossible decider
50%60%
G2 Ares · 2 mapsedge Permitta +10%Permitta · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanG2 Ares remove Ancient
2. BanPermitta remove Inferno
3. PickG2 Ares take Mirage
4. PickPermitta take Overpass
5. BanPermitta remove Dust2
6. BanG2 Ares remove Anubis
DeciderCache (50% / 60%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction missed13:3
G2 Ares 34%Permitta 66%
The model gave 66% on Permitta — the map was taken by G2 Ares.
Cacheprediction correct8:13
G2 Ares 43%Permitta 57%
The model gave 57% on Permitta — the map was taken by Permitta.
Mirageprediction missed14:16
G2 Ares 60%Permitta 40%
The model gave 60% on G2 Ares — the map was taken by Permitta.
Model check result
Model favoriteG2 Ares · 60%
Series resultPermitta 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 3