Hotspawn Showdown 2026 · BO3
result vs prediction
G2 Ares#103 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
68%32%
probability at match start · final 1:2
STATE#137 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
InfernoG2 Ares pick
59%33%
G2 Ares · 28 mapsedge G2 Ares +26%STATE · 5 maps
Miragepossible decider
41%30%
G2 Ares · 25 mapsedge G2 Ares +11%STATE · 6 maps
AncientG2 Ares ban
52%42%
G2 Ares · 17 mapsedge G2 Ares +10%STATE · 8 maps
Dust2STATE ban
38%50%
G2 Ares · 22 mapsedge STATE +12%STATE · 0 maps
CacheSTATE pick
38%64%
G2 Ares · 12 mapsedge STATE +26%STATE · 7 maps
AnubisSTATE ban
45%40%
G2 Ares · 7 mapsedge G2 Ares +5%STATE · 1 map
NukeG2 Ares ban
50%58%
G2 Ares · 0 mapsedge STATE +8%STATE · 8 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanG2 Ares remove Nuke
2. BanSTATE remove Dust2
3. PickG2 Ares take Inferno
4. PickSTATE take Cache
5. BanSTATE remove Anubis
6. BanG2 Ares remove Ancient
DeciderMirage (41% / 30%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction missed9:13
G2 Ares 63%STATE 37%
The model gave 63% on G2 Ares — the map was taken by STATE.
Cacheprediction missed19:15
G2 Ares 23%STATE 77%
The model gave 77% on STATE — the map was taken by G2 Ares.
Mirageprediction missed9:13
G2 Ares 62%STATE 38%
The model gave 62% on G2 Ares — the map was taken by STATE.
Model check result
Model favoriteG2 Ares · 68%
Series resultSTATE 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map0 of 3