Esports World Cup 2026 · BO3
result vs prediction
G2#7 in the world · win 2:1series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Astralis#15 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientAstralis pick
33%58%
G2 · 5 mapsedge Astralis +25%Astralis · 8 maps
MirageAstralis ban
69%50%
G2 · 9 mapsedge G2 +19%Astralis · 2 maps
Dust2Astralis ban
38%25%
G2 · 4 mapsedge G2 +13%Astralis · 4 maps
NukeG2 ban
50%33%
G2 · 0 mapsedge G2 +17%Astralis · 8 maps
Infernopossible decider
75%57%
G2 · 4 mapsedge G2 +18%Astralis · 3 maps
OverpassG2 pick
67%40%
G2 · 5 mapsedge G2 +27%Astralis · 1 map
CacheG2 ban
60%63%
G2 · 1 mapnearly even -3%Astralis · 4 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanG2 remove Nuke
2. BanAstralis remove Dust2
3. PickG2 take Overpass
4. PickAstralis take Ancient
5. BanAstralis remove Mirage
6. BanG2 remove Cache
DeciderInferno (75% / 57%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction correct6:13
G2 24%Astralis 76%
The model gave 76% on Astralis — the map was taken by Astralis.
Dust2prediction correct13:6
G2 67%Astralis 33%
The model gave 67% on G2 — the map was taken by G2.
Infernoprediction correct13:7
G2 69%Astralis 31%
The model gave 69% on G2 — the map was taken by G2.
Model check result
Model favoriteG2 · 61%
Series resultG2 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map3 of 3