PGL Astana 2026 · BO3
result vs prediction
G2#7 in the world · win 2:0series probability
77%23%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Fisher College#85 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientG2 pick
60%50%
G2 · 1 mapedge G2 +10%Fisher College · 4 maps
MirageG2 ban
33%33%
G2 · 2 mapsnearly even +0%Fisher College · 2 maps
Dust2Fisher College ban
43%50%
G2 · 3 mapsedge Fisher College +7%Fisher College · 0 maps
InfernoFisher College ban
50%43%
G2 · 0 mapsedge G2 +7%Fisher College · 3 maps
Overpasspossible decider
67%60%
G2 · 2 mapsedge G2 +7%Fisher College · 1 map
NukeG2 ban
50%33%
G2 · 0 mapsedge G2 +17%Fisher College · 2 maps
AnubisFisher College pick
50%60%
G2 · 0 mapsedge Fisher College +10%Fisher College · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanG2 remove Nuke
2. BanFisher College remove Dust2
3. PickG2 take Ancient
4. PickFisher College take Anubis
5. BanFisher College remove Inferno
6. BanG2 remove Mirage
DeciderOverpass (67% / 60%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction correct13:1
G2 57%Fisher College 43%
The model gave 57% on G2 — the map was taken by G2.
Infernoprediction correct13:5
G2 60%Fisher College 40%
The model gave 60% on G2 — the map was taken by G2.
Model check result
Model favoriteG2 · 77%
Series resultG2 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 2