IEM Cologne Major 2026 Stage 2 · BO1
result vs prediction
G2#7 in the world · win 13:8series probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 13:8
M80#27 in the world · loss 8:13The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientM80 ban
67%36%
G2 · 5 mapsedge G2 +31%M80 · 7 maps
Dust2M80 ban
42%71%
G2 · 8 mapsedge M80 +29%M80 · 3 maps
Infernopossible decider
43%50%
G2 · 3 mapsedge M80 +7%M80 · 8 maps
MirageG2 ban
38%60%
G2 · 4 mapsedge M80 +22%M80 · 6 maps
OverpassM80 ban
67%40%
G2 · 2 mapsedge G2 +27%M80 · 1 map
AnubisG2 ban
50%50%
G2 · 0 mapsnearly even +0%M80 · 2 maps
DefaultG2 ban
50%67%
G2 · 0 mapsedge M80 +17%M80 · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanG2 remove Anubis
2. BanM80 remove Ancient
3. BanG2 remove Default
4. BanM80 remove Overpass
5. BanG2 remove Mirage
6. BanM80 remove Dust2
DeciderInferno (43% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction missed13:8
G2 29%M80 71%
The model gave 71% on M80 — the map was taken by G2.
Model check result
Model favoriteG2 · 65%
Series resultG2 13:8
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map0 of 1