IEM Cologne Major 2026 Stage 2 · BO1
result vs prediction
G2#7 in the world · win 22:19series probability
70%30%
probability at match start · final 22:19
Monte#23 in the world · loss 19:22The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2possible decider
42%44%
G2 · 8 mapsnearly even -2%Monte · 5 maps
AncientMonte ban
67%43%
G2 · 5 mapsedge G2 +24%Monte · 3 maps
MirageG2 ban
44%67%
G2 · 5 mapsedge Monte +23%Monte · 2 maps
InfernoMonte ban
43%50%
G2 · 3 mapsedge Monte +7%Monte · 0 maps
NukeG2 ban
50%43%
G2 · 0 mapsedge G2 +7%Monte · 3 maps
OverpassMonte ban
67%40%
G2 · 2 mapsedge G2 +27%Monte · 1 map
AnubisG2 ban
50%60%
G2 · 0 mapsedge Monte +10%Monte · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanG2 remove Nuke
2. BanMonte remove Overpass
3. BanG2 remove Anubis
4. BanMonte remove Inferno
5. BanG2 remove Mirage
6. BanMonte remove Ancient
DeciderDust2 (42% / 44%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction missed22:19
G2 29%Monte 71%
The model gave 71% on Monte — the map was taken by G2.
Model check result
Model favoriteG2 · 70%
Series resultG2 22:19
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map0 of 1