ESL Pro League Season 24 · BO3
result vs prediction
G2#7 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
69%31%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Natus Vincere#10 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientNatus Vincere ban
56%29%
G2 · 12 mapsedge G2 +27%Natus Vincere · 3 maps
InfernoG2 pick
69%40%
G2 · 9 mapsedge G2 +29%Natus Vincere · 6 maps
Miragepossible decider
58%44%
G2 · 8 mapsedge G2 +14%Natus Vincere · 5 maps
AnubisG2 ban
50%60%
G2 · 6 mapsedge Natus Vincere +10%Natus Vincere · 1 map
Dust2Natus Vincere ban
36%50%
G2 · 7 mapsedge Natus Vincere +14%Natus Vincere · 0 maps
CacheNatus Vincere pick
43%60%
G2 · 3 mapsedge Natus Vincere +17%Natus Vincere · 1 map
NukeG2 ban
50%50%
G2 · 0 mapsnearly even +0%Natus Vincere · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanG2 remove Nuke
2. BanNatus Vincere remove Dust2
3. PickG2 take Inferno
4. PickNatus Vincere take Cache
5. BanNatus Vincere remove Ancient
6. BanG2 remove Anubis
DeciderMirage (58% / 44%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Cacheprediction correct7:13
G2 31%Natus Vincere 69%
The model gave 69% on Natus Vincere — the map was taken by Natus Vincere.
Infernoprediction missed4:13
G2 79%Natus Vincere 21%
The model gave 79% on G2 — the map was taken by Natus Vincere.
Model check result
Model favoriteG2 · 69%
Series resultNatus Vincere 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2