BC Game Masters Championship Season 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Gaimin Gladiators#46 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Acend#125 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageGaimin Gladiators ban
50%70%
Gaimin Gladiators · 0 mapsedge Acend +20%Acend · 6 maps
AncientAcend ban
50%50%
Gaimin Gladiators · 0 mapsnearly even +0%Acend · 4 maps
Dust2Acend ban
50%50%
Gaimin Gladiators · 0 mapsnearly even +0%Acend · 2 maps
DefaultAcend pick
50%60%
Gaimin Gladiators · 0 mapsedge Acend +10%Acend · 1 map
InfernoGaimin Gladiators ban
50%60%
Gaimin Gladiators · 0 mapsedge Acend +10%Acend · 1 map
OverpassGaimin Gladiators pick
50%40%
Gaimin Gladiators · 0 mapsedge Gaimin Gladiators +10%Acend · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanGaimin Gladiators remove Mirage
2. BanAcend remove Dust2
3. PickGaimin Gladiators take Overpass
4. PickAcend take Default
5. BanAcend remove Ancient
6. BanGaimin Gladiators remove Inferno
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction correct6:13
Gaimin Gladiators 28%Acend 72%
The model gave 72% on Acend — the map was taken by Acend.
Overpassprediction missed9:13
Gaimin Gladiators 63%Acend 37%
The model gave 63% on Gaimin Gladiators — the map was taken by Acend.
Model check result
Model favoriteGaimin Gladiators · 56%
Series resultAcend 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2