Circuit X Curitiba Season 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
Galorys#68 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
69%31%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Bounty Hunters#74 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientGalorys pick
83%31%
Galorys · 14 mapsedge Galorys +52%Bounty Hunters · 9 maps
CacheBounty Hunters pick
57%60%
Galorys · 3 mapsnearly even -3%Bounty Hunters · 16 maps
Dust2Bounty Hunters ban
47%42%
Galorys · 11 mapsedge Galorys +5%Bounty Hunters · 8 maps
Nukepossible decider
70%53%
Galorys · 6 mapsedge Galorys +17%Bounty Hunters · 13 maps
MirageGalorys ban
50%50%
Galorys · 0 mapsnearly even +0%Bounty Hunters · 16 maps
AnubisGalorys ban
50%56%
Galorys · 8 mapsedge Bounty Hunters +6%Bounty Hunters · 5 maps
InfernoBounty Hunters ban
38%50%
Galorys · 4 mapsedge Bounty Hunters +12%Bounty Hunters · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanGalorys remove Mirage
2. BanBounty Hunters remove Inferno
3. PickGalorys take Ancient
4. PickBounty Hunters take Cache
5. BanBounty Hunters remove Dust2
6. BanGalorys remove Anubis
DeciderNuke (70% / 53%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Cacheprediction missed13:10
Galorys 44%Bounty Hunters 56%
The model gave 56% on Bounty Hunters — the map was taken by Galorys.
Ancientprediction missed11:13
Galorys 93%Bounty Hunters 7%
The model gave 93% on Galorys — the map was taken by Bounty Hunters.
Nukeprediction missed5:13
Galorys 67%Bounty Hunters 33%
The model gave 67% on Galorys — the map was taken by Bounty Hunters.
Model check result
Model favoriteGalorys · 69%
Series resultBounty Hunters 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map0 of 3