ESL Challenger League Season 52 South America Cup 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Galorys#68 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
32%68%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Imperial#51 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
InfernoImperial pick
43%67%
Galorys · 3 mapsedge Imperial +24%Imperial · 17 maps
MirageGalorys ban
50%67%
Galorys · 0 mapsedge Imperial +17%Imperial · 17 maps
NukeImperial ban
75%71%
Galorys · 4 mapsnearly even +4%Imperial · 13 maps
Dust2Galorys ban
40%62%
Galorys · 6 mapsedge Imperial +22%Imperial · 9 maps
Cachepossible decider
50%62%
Galorys · 2 mapsedge Imperial +12%Imperial · 9 maps
AnubisGalorys pick
60%50%
Galorys · 6 mapsedge Galorys +10%Imperial · 4 maps
AncientImperial ban
75%50%
Galorys · 8 mapsedge Galorys +25%Imperial · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanGalorys remove Mirage
2. BanImperial remove Ancient
3. PickGalorys take Anubis
4. PickImperial take Inferno
5. BanImperial remove Nuke
6. BanGalorys remove Dust2
DeciderCache (50% / 62%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Anubisprediction missed11:13
Galorys 63%Imperial 37%
The model gave 63% on Galorys — the map was taken by Imperial.
Dust2prediction correct9:13
Galorys 27%Imperial 73%
The model gave 73% on Imperial — the map was taken by Imperial.
Model check result
Model favoriteImperial · 68%
Series resultImperial 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2