ESL Challenger League Season 52 South America Cup 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Galorys#68 in the world · win 2:0series probability
71%29%
probability at match start · final 2:0
METANOIA Wolves#210 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2METANOIA Wolves pick
56%44%
Galorys · 14 mapsedge Galorys +12%METANOIA Wolves · 14 maps
AncientGalorys pick
83%67%
Galorys · 19 mapsedge Galorys +16%METANOIA Wolves · 8 maps
Anubispossible decider
46%33%
Galorys · 9 mapsedge Galorys +13%METANOIA Wolves · 2 maps
MirageGalorys ban
50%13%
Galorys · 0 mapsedge Galorys +37%METANOIA Wolves · 11 maps
NukeMETANOIA Wolves ban
64%38%
Galorys · 7 mapsedge Galorys +26%METANOIA Wolves · 4 maps
CacheMETANOIA Wolves ban
60%25%
Galorys · 6 mapsedge Galorys +35%METANOIA Wolves · 4 maps
InfernoGalorys ban
33%38%
Galorys · 5 mapsedge METANOIA Wolves +5%METANOIA Wolves · 4 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanGalorys remove Mirage
2. BanMETANOIA Wolves remove Cache
3. PickGalorys take Ancient
4. PickMETANOIA Wolves take Dust2
5. BanMETANOIA Wolves remove Nuke
6. BanGalorys remove Inferno
DeciderAnubis (46% / 33%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct13:5
Galorys 58%METANOIA Wolves 42%
The model gave 58% on Galorys — the map was taken by Galorys.
Ancientprediction correct13:10
Galorys 73%METANOIA Wolves 27%
The model gave 73% on Galorys — the map was taken by Galorys.
Model check result
Model favoriteGalorys · 71%
Series resultGalorys 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 2