IEM Cologne Major 2026 Stage 1 · BO1
result vs prediction
GamerLegion#22 in the world · win 13:11series probability
87%13%
probability at match start · final 13:11
FlyQuest#67 in the world · loss 11:13The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageGamerLegion ban
42%40%
GamerLegion · 8 mapsnearly even +2%FlyQuest · 1 map
Infernopossible decider
64%40%
GamerLegion · 7 mapsedge GamerLegion +24%FlyQuest · 1 map
AncientFlyQuest ban
63%43%
GamerLegion · 4 mapsedge GamerLegion +20%FlyQuest · 3 maps
NukeFlyQuest ban
75%60%
GamerLegion · 4 mapsedge GamerLegion +15%FlyQuest · 1 map
OverpassFlyQuest ban
43%50%
GamerLegion · 3 mapsedge FlyQuest +7%FlyQuest · 0 maps
Dust2GamerLegion ban
50%67%
GamerLegion · 0 mapsedge FlyQuest +17%FlyQuest · 2 maps
AnubisGamerLegion ban
50%60%
GamerLegion · 0 mapsedge FlyQuest +10%FlyQuest · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanGamerLegion remove Dust2
2. BanFlyQuest remove Overpass
3. BanGamerLegion remove Anubis
4. BanFlyQuest remove Nuke
5. BanGamerLegion remove Mirage
6. BanFlyQuest remove Ancient
DeciderInferno (64% / 40%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction correct13:11
GamerLegion 72%FlyQuest 28%
The model gave 72% on GamerLegion — the map was taken by GamerLegion.
Model check result
Model favoriteGamerLegion · 87%
Series resultGamerLegion 13:11
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 1