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1win Private Club Season 2 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
GamerLegion#19 in the world · loss 1:2
series probability
79%21%
probability at match start · final 1:2
PRIVATE#66 in the world · win 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientGamerLegion pick
53%71%
GamerLegion · 11 mapsedge PRIVATE +18%PRIVATE · 3 maps
MiragePRIVATE pick
27%71%
GamerLegion · 7 mapsedge PRIVATE +44%PRIVATE · 3 maps
Nukepossible decider
58%50%
GamerLegion · 8 mapsedge GamerLegion +8%PRIVATE · 2 maps
CachePRIVATE ban
75%40%
GamerLegion · 8 mapsedge GamerLegion +35%PRIVATE · 1 map
Dust2GamerLegion ban
40%50%
GamerLegion · 6 mapsedge PRIVATE +10%PRIVATE · 2 maps
AnubisGamerLegion ban
50%50%
GamerLegion · 0 mapsnearly even +0%PRIVATE · 2 maps
DefaultPRIVATE ban
40%50%
GamerLegion · 1 mapedge PRIVATE +10%PRIVATE · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanGamerLegion remove Anubis
2. BanPRIVATE remove Cache
3. PickGamerLegion take Ancient
4. PickPRIVATE take Mirage
5. BanPRIVATE remove Default
6. BanGamerLegion remove Dust2
DeciderNuke (58% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction correct10:13
GamerLegion 12%PRIVATE 88%
The model gave 88% on PRIVATE — the map was taken by PRIVATE.
Cacheprediction correct16:12
GamerLegion 84%PRIVATE 16%
The model gave 84% on GamerLegion — the map was taken by GamerLegion.
Ancientprediction correct14:16
GamerLegion 31%PRIVATE 69%
The model gave 69% on PRIVATE — the map was taken by PRIVATE.
Model check result
Model favoriteGamerLegion · 79%
Series resultPRIVATE 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map3 of 3