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Tipsport Open Cup 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
GamersLabloss 1:2
series probability
38%62%
probability at match start · final 1:2
NAVI Junior#127 in the world · win 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientGamersLab ban
40%43%
GamersLab · 1 mapnearly even -3%NAVI Junior · 3 maps
MirageGamersLab ban
50%75%
GamersLab · 0 mapsedge NAVI Junior +25%NAVI Junior · 4 maps
NukeGamersLab pick
40%29%
GamersLab · 1 mapedge GamersLab +11%NAVI Junior · 3 maps
AnubisNAVI Junior pick
50%50%
GamersLab · 0 mapsnearly even +0%NAVI Junior · 2 maps
InfernoNAVI Junior ban
50%33%
GamersLab · 0 mapsedge GamersLab +17%NAVI Junior · 2 maps
Dust2NAVI Junior ban
50%40%
GamersLab · 0 mapsedge GamersLab +10%NAVI Junior · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanGamersLab remove Mirage
2. BanNAVI Junior remove Inferno
3. PickGamersLab take Nuke
4. PickNAVI Junior take Anubis
5. BanNAVI Junior remove Dust2
6. BanGamersLab remove Ancient
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct16:12
GamersLab 63%NAVI Junior 37%
The model gave 63% on GamersLab — the map was taken by GamersLab.
Mirageprediction correct12:16
GamersLab 23%NAVI Junior 77%
The model gave 77% on NAVI Junior — the map was taken by NAVI Junior.
Nukeprediction missed11:13
GamersLab 63%NAVI Junior 37%
The model gave 63% on GamersLab — the map was taken by NAVI Junior.
Model check result
Model favoriteNAVI Junior · 62%
Series resultNAVI Junior 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 3