NODWIN Clutch Series 10 · BO3
result vs prediction
GenOne#95 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
63%37%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Atreides#147 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2GenOne pick
68%33%
GenOne · 43 mapsedge GenOne +35%Atreides · 8 maps
AncientAtreides ban
44%53%
GenOne · 23 mapsedge Atreides +9%Atreides · 11 maps
Nukepossible decider
60%60%
GenOne · 26 mapsnearly even +0%Atreides · 6 maps
OverpassGenOne ban
37%43%
GenOne · 15 mapsedge Atreides +6%Atreides · 10 maps
InfernoAtreides pick
56%57%
GenOne · 14 mapsnearly even -1%Atreides · 10 maps
MirageGenOne ban
50%74%
GenOne · 0 mapsedge Atreides +24%Atreides · 19 maps
AnubisAtreides ban
57%57%
GenOne · 10 mapsnearly even +0%Atreides · 3 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanGenOne remove Mirage
2. BanAtreides remove Anubis
3. PickGenOne take Dust2
4. PickAtreides take Inferno
5. BanAtreides remove Ancient
6. BanGenOne remove Overpass
DeciderNuke (60% / 60%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction correct20:22
GenOne 45%Atreides 55%
The model gave 55% on Atreides — the map was taken by Atreides.
Ancientprediction correct6:13
GenOne 44%Atreides 56%
The model gave 56% on Atreides — the map was taken by Atreides.
Model check result
Model favoriteGenOne · 63%
Series resultAtreides 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map2 of 2