European Pro League Series 7 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
GenOne#95 in the world · win 2:0series probability
67%33%
probability at match start · final 2:0
DONSTU#221 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2GenOne pick
70%38%
GenOne · 23 mapsedge GenOne +32%DONSTU · 4 maps
NukeDONSTU ban
57%50%
GenOne · 19 mapsedge GenOne +7%DONSTU · 0 maps
AncientGenOne ban
39%67%
GenOne · 14 mapsedge DONSTU +28%DONSTU · 2 maps
Infernopossible decider
58%38%
GenOne · 8 mapsedge GenOne +20%DONSTU · 4 maps
AnubisDONSTU pick
60%44%
GenOne · 6 mapsedge GenOne +16%DONSTU · 5 maps
OverpassGenOne ban
42%50%
GenOne · 8 mapsedge DONSTU +8%DONSTU · 0 maps
DefaultDONSTU ban
33%50%
GenOne · 2 mapsedge DONSTU +17%DONSTU · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanGenOne remove Ancient
2. BanDONSTU remove Nuke
3. PickGenOne take Dust2
4. PickDONSTU take Anubis
5. BanDONSTU remove Default
6. BanGenOne remove Overpass
DeciderInferno (58% / 38%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction missed19:15
GenOne 22%DONSTU 78%
The model gave 78% on DONSTU — the map was taken by GenOne.
Dust2prediction correct13:11
GenOne 82%DONSTU 18%
The model gave 82% on GenOne — the map was taken by GenOne.
Model check result
Model favoriteGenOne · 67%
Series resultGenOne 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2