European Pro League Series 8 · BO3
result vs prediction
GenOne#95 in the world · win 2:0series probability
72%28%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2ex-RUSTEC ban
68%50%
GenOne · 40 mapsedge GenOne +18%ex-RUSTEC · 0 maps
NukeGenOne pick
60%50%
GenOne · 26 mapsedge GenOne +10%ex-RUSTEC · 0 maps
AncientGenOne ban
46%50%
GenOne · 22 mapsnearly even -4%ex-RUSTEC · 0 maps
OverpassGenOne ban
37%50%
GenOne · 15 mapsedge ex-RUSTEC +13%ex-RUSTEC · 0 maps
Infernopossible decider
53%50%
GenOne · 11 mapsnearly even +3%ex-RUSTEC · 0 maps
Anubisex-RUSTEC ban
57%50%
GenOne · 10 mapsedge GenOne +7%ex-RUSTEC · 0 maps
Defaultex-RUSTEC pick
33%50%
GenOne · 2 mapsedge ex-RUSTEC +17%ex-RUSTEC · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanGenOne remove Overpass
2. Banex-RUSTEC remove Dust2
3. PickGenOne take Nuke
4. Pickex-RUSTEC take Default
5. Banex-RUSTEC remove Anubis
6. BanGenOne remove Ancient
DeciderInferno (53% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct16:14
GenOne 71%ex-RUSTEC 29%
The model gave 71% on GenOne — the map was taken by GenOne.
Infernoprediction correct13:8
GenOne 50%ex-RUSTEC 50%
The model gave 50% on GenOne — the map was taken by GenOne.
Model check result
Model favoriteGenOne · 72%
Series resultGenOne 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 2