Thunderpick World Championship 2026 Europe Series 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
GenOne#95 in the world · win 2:0series probability
74%26%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2GenOne pick
68%64%
GenOne · 46 mapsnearly even +4%ex-RUSTEC · 10 maps
Nukeex-RUSTEC ban
58%30%
GenOne · 27 mapsedge GenOne +28%ex-RUSTEC · 6 maps
Ancientex-RUSTEC ban
47%50%
GenOne · 26 mapsnearly even -3%ex-RUSTEC · 0 maps
Infernopossible decider
55%38%
GenOne · 16 mapsedge GenOne +17%ex-RUSTEC · 4 maps
OverpassGenOne ban
37%50%
GenOne · 15 mapsedge ex-RUSTEC +13%ex-RUSTEC · 0 maps
AnubisGenOne ban
57%43%
GenOne · 10 mapsedge GenOne +14%ex-RUSTEC · 3 maps
Cacheex-RUSTEC pick
43%50%
GenOne · 3 mapsedge ex-RUSTEC +7%ex-RUSTEC · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanGenOne remove Overpass
2. Banex-RUSTEC remove Ancient
3. PickGenOne take Dust2
4. Pickex-RUSTEC take Cache
5. Banex-RUSTEC remove Nuke
6. BanGenOne remove Anubis
DeciderInferno (55% / 38%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct13:7
GenOne 57%ex-RUSTEC 43%
The model gave 57% on GenOne — the map was taken by GenOne.
Anubisprediction correct13:3
GenOne 61%ex-RUSTEC 39%
The model gave 61% on GenOne — the map was taken by GenOne.
Model check result
Model favoriteGenOne · 74%
Series resultGenOne 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 2