NODWIN Clutch Series 11 · BO3
result vs prediction
GenOne#95 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
84%16%
probability at match start · final 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2GenOne pick
71%58%
GenOne · 45 mapsedge GenOne +13%ex-Zero Tenacity · 15 maps
Nukeex-Zero Tenacity pick
60%58%
GenOne · 21 mapnearly even +2%ex-Zero Tenacity · 15 maps
Ancientex-Zero Tenacity ban
56%50%
GenOne · 32 mapsedge GenOne +6%ex-Zero Tenacity · 0 maps
Infernopossible decider
44%40%
GenOne · 14 mapsnearly even +4%ex-Zero Tenacity · 6 maps
Anubisex-Zero Tenacity ban
71%33%
GenOne · 13 mapsedge GenOne +38%ex-Zero Tenacity · 5 maps
OverpassGenOne ban
42%40%
GenOne · 8 mapsnearly even +2%ex-Zero Tenacity · 6 maps
CacheGenOne ban
44%71%
GenOne · 5 mapsedge ex-Zero Tenacity +27%ex-Zero Tenacity · 3 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanGenOne remove Cache
2. Banex-Zero Tenacity remove Ancient
3. PickGenOne take Dust2
4. Pickex-Zero Tenacity take Nuke
5. Banex-Zero Tenacity remove Anubis
6. BanGenOne remove Overpass
DeciderInferno (44% / 40%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction missed5:13
GenOne 52%ex-Zero Tenacity 48%
The model gave 52% on GenOne — the map was taken by ex-Zero Tenacity.
Dust2prediction missed7:13
GenOne 67%ex-Zero Tenacity 33%
The model gave 67% on GenOne — the map was taken by ex-Zero Tenacity.
Model check result
Model favoriteGenOne · 84%
Series resultex-Zero Tenacity 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map0 of 2