NODWIN Clutch Series 13 · BO3
result vs prediction
GenOne#121 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
44%56%
probability at match start · final 0:2
FORZE Reload#94 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2GenOne pick
60%68%
GenOne · 31 mapedge FORZE Reload +8%FORZE Reload · 15 maps
NukeFORZE Reload pick
45%67%
GenOne · 16 mapsedge FORZE Reload +22%FORZE Reload · 11 maps
Ancientpossible decider
63%60%
GenOne · 20 mapsnearly even +3%FORZE Reload · 6 maps
AnubisFORZE Reload ban
80%46%
GenOne · 11 mapsedge GenOne +34%FORZE Reload · 9 maps
CacheGenOne ban
36%71%
GenOne · 7 mapsedge FORZE Reload +35%FORZE Reload · 10 maps
InfernoFORZE Reload ban
60%50%
GenOne · 16 mapsedge GenOne +10%FORZE Reload · 0 maps
MirageGenOne ban
50%56%
GenOne · 0 mapsedge FORZE Reload +6%FORZE Reload · 12 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanGenOne remove Mirage
2. BanFORZE Reload remove Inferno
3. PickGenOne take Dust2
4. PickFORZE Reload take Nuke
5. BanFORZE Reload remove Anubis
6. BanGenOne remove Cache
DeciderAncient (63% / 60%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Cacheprediction correct9:13
GenOne 17%FORZE Reload 83%
The model gave 83% on FORZE Reload — the map was taken by FORZE Reload.
Anubisprediction missed13:16
GenOne 84%FORZE Reload 16%
The model gave 84% on GenOne — the map was taken by FORZE Reload.
Model check result
Model favoriteFORZE Reload · 56%
Series resultFORZE Reload 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2