BC Game Masters Europe Season 2 Series 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
GenOne#95 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 1:2
INOX Division#66 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2GenOne pick
67%57%
GenOne · 2 mapsedge GenOne +10%INOX Division · 3 maps
NukeINOX Division pick
67%57%
GenOne · 2 mapsedge GenOne +10%INOX Division · 3 maps
InfernoINOX Division ban
60%50%
GenOne · 1 mapedge GenOne +10%INOX Division · 2 maps
AncientINOX Division ban
50%50%
GenOne · 2 mapsnearly even +0%INOX Division · 0 maps
OverpassGenOne ban
50%60%
GenOne · 0 mapsedge INOX Division +10%INOX Division · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanGenOne remove Overpass
2. BanINOX Division remove Ancient
3. PickGenOne take Dust2
4. PickINOX Division take Nuke
5. BanINOX Division remove Inferno
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction correct13:9
GenOne 57%INOX Division 43%
The model gave 57% on GenOne — the map was taken by GenOne.
Dust2prediction missed9:13
GenOne 63%INOX Division 37%
The model gave 63% on GenOne — the map was taken by INOX Division.
Overpassprediction correct6:13
GenOne 40%INOX Division 60%
The model gave 60% on INOX Division — the map was taken by INOX Division.
Model check result
Model favoriteINOX Division · 52%
Series resultINOX Division 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 3