ESL Challenger League Season 52 Europe Cup 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
GenOne#95 in the world · win 2:0series probability
72%28%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2GenOne pick
67%36%
GenOne · 39 mapsedge GenOne +31%Just Players · 10 maps
NukeJust Players ban
60%42%
GenOne · 26 mapsedge GenOne +18%Just Players · 8 maps
AncientJust Players pick
44%53%
GenOne · 21 mapedge Just Players +9%Just Players · 11 maps
OverpassGenOne ban
37%60%
GenOne · 15 mapsedge Just Players +23%Just Players · 6 maps
Anubispossible decider
57%71%
GenOne · 10 mapsedge Just Players +14%Just Players · 3 maps
MirageGenOne ban
50%56%
GenOne · 0 mapsedge Just Players +6%Just Players · 12 maps
InfernoJust Players ban
53%50%
GenOne · 11 mapsnearly even +3%Just Players · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanGenOne remove Mirage
2. BanJust Players remove Inferno
3. PickGenOne take Dust2
4. PickJust Players take Ancient
5. BanJust Players remove Nuke
6. BanGenOne remove Overpass
DeciderAnubis (57% / 71%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction missed13:7
GenOne 38%Just Players 62%
The model gave 62% on Just Players — the map was taken by GenOne.
Dust2prediction correct13:4
GenOne 81%Just Players 19%
The model gave 81% on GenOne — the map was taken by GenOne.
Model check result
Model favoriteGenOne · 72%
Series resultGenOne 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2