NODWIN Clutch Series 10 · BO3
result vs prediction
GenOne#95 in the world · win 2:1series probability
72%28%
probability at match start · final 2:1
SPARTA#96 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2GenOne pick
69%61%
GenOne · 44 mapsedge GenOne +8%SPARTA · 29 maps
Nukepossible decider
60%50%
GenOne · 26 mapsedge GenOne +10%SPARTA · 16 maps
AncientSPARTA ban
43%38%
GenOne · 24 mapsedge GenOne +5%SPARTA · 17 maps
InfernoGenOne ban
55%40%
GenOne · 16 mapsedge GenOne +15%SPARTA · 11 maps
OverpassSPARTA pick
37%45%
GenOne · 15 mapsedge SPARTA +8%SPARTA · 7 maps
MirageGenOne ban
50%57%
GenOne · 0 mapsedge SPARTA +7%SPARTA · 19 maps
AnubisSPARTA ban
57%43%
GenOne · 10 mapsedge GenOne +14%SPARTA · 3 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanGenOne remove Mirage
2. BanSPARTA remove Anubis
3. PickGenOne take Dust2
4. PickSPARTA take Overpass
5. BanSPARTA remove Ancient
6. BanGenOne remove Inferno
DeciderNuke (60% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction correct13:0
GenOne 52%SPARTA 48%
The model gave 52% on GenOne — the map was taken by GenOne.
Dust2prediction missed6:13
GenOne 62%SPARTA 38%
The model gave 62% on GenOne — the map was taken by SPARTA.
Nukeprediction correct13:11
GenOne 60%SPARTA 40%
The model gave 60% on GenOne — the map was taken by GenOne.
Model check result
Model favoriteGenOne · 72%
Series resultGenOne 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 3