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NODWIN Clutch Series 9 · BO3
result vs prediction
Gentle Mates#38 in the world · win 2:1
series probability
68%32%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Acend#125 in the world · loss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageAcend pick
55%67%
Gentle Mates · 7 mapsedge Acend +12%Acend · 11 maps
InfernoGentle Mates pick
57%50%
Gentle Mates · 10 mapsedge Gentle Mates +7%Acend · 4 maps
AncientAcend ban
73%44%
Gentle Mates · 7 mapsedge Gentle Mates +29%Acend · 5 maps
Overpasspossible decider
57%36%
Gentle Mates · 3 mapsedge Gentle Mates +21%Acend · 7 maps
Dust2Gentle Mates ban
50%46%
Gentle Mates · 0 mapsnearly even +4%Acend · 9 maps
NukeAcend ban
38%50%
Gentle Mates · 9 mapsedge Acend +12%Acend · 0 maps
AnubisGentle Mates ban
57%50%
Gentle Mates · 3 mapsedge Gentle Mates +7%Acend · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanGentle Mates remove Dust2
2. BanAcend remove Nuke
3. PickGentle Mates take Inferno
4. PickAcend take Mirage
5. BanAcend remove Ancient
6. BanGentle Mates remove Anubis
DeciderOverpass (57% / 36%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction missed13:6
Gentle Mates 35%Acend 65%
The model gave 65% on Acend — the map was taken by Gentle Mates.
Ancientprediction missed9:13
Gentle Mates 79%Acend 21%
The model gave 79% on Gentle Mates — the map was taken by Acend.
Infernoprediction correct13:9
Gentle Mates 57%Acend 43%
The model gave 57% on Gentle Mates — the map was taken by Gentle Mates.
Model check result
Model favoriteGentle Mates · 68%
Series resultGentle Mates 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 3