PGL Astana 2026 · BO3
result vs prediction
Gentle Mates#38 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 0:2
magic#18 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Miragemagic pick
50%70%
Gentle Mates · 4 mapsedge magic +20%magic · 6 maps
InfernoGentle Mates pick
56%57%
Gentle Mates · 5 mapsnearly even -1%magic · 3 maps
Ancientmagic ban
63%40%
Gentle Mates · 4 mapsedge Gentle Mates +23%magic · 1 map
Nukemagic ban
44%50%
Gentle Mates · 5 mapsedge magic +6%magic · 0 maps
OverpassGentle Mates ban
50%67%
Gentle Mates · 2 mapsedge magic +17%magic · 2 maps
Dust2Gentle Mates ban
50%43%
Gentle Mates · 0 mapsedge Gentle Mates +7%magic · 3 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanGentle Mates remove Dust2
2. Banmagic remove Nuke
3. PickGentle Mates take Inferno
4. Pickmagic take Mirage
5. Banmagic remove Ancient
6. BanGentle Mates remove Overpass
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction correct5:13
Gentle Mates 28%magic 72%
The model gave 72% on magic — the map was taken by magic.
Infernoprediction missed13:16
Gentle Mates 51%magic 49%
The model gave 51% on Gentle Mates — the map was taken by magic.
Model check result
Model favoritemagic · 51%
Series resultmagic 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2