LORGAR RANKINGS Season 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Gentle Mates#38 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 1:2
SINNERS#45 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Gentle Mates ban
50%60%
Gentle Mates · 0 mapsedge SINNERS +10%SINNERS · 1 map
OverpassSINNERS ban
50%60%
Gentle Mates · 0 mapsedge SINNERS +10%SINNERS · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanGentle Mates remove Dust2
2. BanSINNERS remove Overpass
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction correct19:17
Gentle Mates 53%SINNERS 47%
The model gave 53% on Gentle Mates — the map was taken by Gentle Mates.
Mirageprediction correct11:13
Gentle Mates 47%SINNERS 53%
The model gave 53% on SINNERS — the map was taken by SINNERS.
Nukeprediction missed10:13
Gentle Mates 50%SINNERS 50%
The model gave 50% on Gentle Mates — the map was taken by SINNERS.
Model check result
Model favoriteSINNERS · 53%
Series resultSINNERS 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 3