NODWIN Clutch Series 13 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
36%64%
probability at match start · final 1:2
mellren#94 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Miragemellren pick
33%66%
Gothic · 2 mapsedge mellren +33%mellren · 25 maps
Ancientpossible decider
67%68%
Gothic · 2 mapsnearly even -1%mellren · 15 maps
InfernoGothic ban
50%61%
Gothic · 0 mapsedge mellren +11%mellren · 14 maps
Nukemellren ban
50%19%
Gothic · 0 mapsedge Gothic +31%mellren · 12 maps
Dust2Gothic ban
40%62%
Gothic · 1 mapedge mellren +22%mellren · 9 maps
AnubisGothic pick
50%70%
Gothic · 2 mapsedge mellren +20%mellren · 6 maps
Defaultmellren ban
50%50%
Gothic · 0 mapsnearly even +0%mellren · 4 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanGothic remove Dust2
2. Banmellren remove Nuke
3. PickGothic take Anubis
4. Pickmellren take Mirage
5. Banmellren remove Default
6. BanGothic remove Inferno
DeciderAncient (67% / 68%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction missed13:11
Gothic 36%mellren 64%
The model gave 64% on mellren — the map was taken by Gothic.
Ancientprediction missed7:13
Gothic 51%mellren 49%
The model gave 51% on Gothic — the map was taken by mellren.
Anubisprediction correct7:13
Gothic 30%mellren 70%
The model gave 70% on mellren — the map was taken by mellren.
Model check result
Model favoritemellren · 64%
Series resultmellren 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 3