CCT 2026 South America Series 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
Grêmio#201 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
43%57%
probability at match start · final 1:2
ALKA#129 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Nukepossible decider
50%55%
Grêmio · 0 mapsedge ALKA +5%ALKA · 7 maps
MirageALKA ban
40%44%
Grêmio · 1 mapnearly even -4%ALKA · 5 maps
Dust2Grêmio ban
50%67%
Grêmio · 0 mapsedge ALKA +17%ALKA · 5 maps
AncientALKA pick
50%63%
Grêmio · 0 mapsedge ALKA +13%ALKA · 4 maps
InfernoGrêmio ban
50%63%
Grêmio · 0 mapsedge ALKA +13%ALKA · 4 maps
CacheGrêmio pick
40%40%
Grêmio · 1 mapnearly even +0%ALKA · 1 map
DefaultALKA ban
60%40%
Grêmio · 1 mapedge Grêmio +20%ALKA · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanGrêmio remove Dust2
2. BanALKA remove Mirage
3. PickGrêmio take Cache
4. PickALKA take Ancient
5. BanALKA remove Default
6. BanGrêmio remove Inferno
DeciderNuke (50% / 55%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction missed13:10
Grêmio 40%ALKA 60%
The model gave 60% on ALKA — the map was taken by Grêmio.
Dust2prediction correct5:13
Grêmio 31%ALKA 69%
The model gave 69% on ALKA — the map was taken by ALKA.
Ancientprediction correct11:13
Grêmio 38%ALKA 62%
The model gave 63% on ALKA — the map was taken by ALKA.
Model check result
Model favoriteALKA · 57%
Series resultALKA 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 3