CCT 2026 South America Series 5 · BO3
result vs prediction
Grêmio#201 in the world · win 1:0series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 1:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Blitzkrieg pick
50%29%
Grêmio · 6 mapsedge Grêmio +21%Blitzkrieg · 3 maps
InfernoGrêmio pick
55%50%
Grêmio · 7 mapsedge Grêmio +5%Blitzkrieg · 0 maps
MirageGrêmio ban
38%29%
Grêmio · 4 mapsedge Grêmio +9%Blitzkrieg · 3 maps
Defaultpossible decider
60%56%
Grêmio · 1 mapnearly even +4%Blitzkrieg · 5 maps
AncientGrêmio ban
40%33%
Grêmio · 1 mapedge Grêmio +7%Blitzkrieg · 2 maps
CacheBlitzkrieg ban
43%50%
Grêmio · 3 mapsedge Blitzkrieg +7%Blitzkrieg · 0 maps
NukeBlitzkrieg ban
43%50%
Grêmio · 3 mapsedge Blitzkrieg +7%Blitzkrieg · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanGrêmio remove Ancient
2. BanBlitzkrieg remove Cache
3. PickGrêmio take Inferno
4. PickBlitzkrieg take Dust2
5. BanBlitzkrieg remove Nuke
6. BanGrêmio remove Mirage
DeciderDefault (60% / 56%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Defaultprediction correct1:0
Grêmio 55%Blitzkrieg 45%
The model gave 55% on Grêmio — the map was taken by Grêmio.
Model check result
Model favoriteGrêmio · 54%
Series resultGrêmio 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 1