BetBoom Storm Season 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
Grêmio#201 in the world · win 2:1series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Procyon#119 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Grêmio ban
50%43%
Grêmio · 4 mapsedge Grêmio +7%Procyon · 10 maps
MirageProcyon pick
29%50%
Grêmio · 3 mapsedge Procyon +21%Procyon · 8 maps
InfernoGrêmio pick
50%63%
Grêmio · 4 mapsedge Procyon +13%Procyon · 4 maps
Nukepossible decider
50%25%
Grêmio · 2 mapsedge Grêmio +25%Procyon · 4 maps
AncientProcyon ban
40%38%
Grêmio · 1 mapnearly even +2%Procyon · 4 maps
AnubisGrêmio ban
50%43%
Grêmio · 0 mapsedge Grêmio +7%Procyon · 3 maps
CacheProcyon ban
43%50%
Grêmio · 3 mapsedge Procyon +7%Procyon · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanGrêmio remove Anubis
2. BanProcyon remove Cache
3. PickGrêmio take Inferno
4. PickProcyon take Mirage
5. BanProcyon remove Ancient
6. BanGrêmio remove Dust2
DeciderNuke (50% / 25%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction missed5:13
Grêmio 77%Procyon 23%
The model gave 77% on Grêmio — the map was taken by Procyon.
Dust2prediction correct13:10
Grêmio 54%Procyon 46%
The model gave 54% on Grêmio — the map was taken by Grêmio.
Infernoprediction missed13:2
Grêmio 38%Procyon 62%
The model gave 63% on Procyon — the map was taken by Grêmio.
Model check result
Model favoriteGrêmio · 50%
Series resultGrêmio 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 3