ESL Challenger League Season 52 South America Cup 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Grêmio#201 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Yawara#156 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageYawara pick
30%45%
Grêmio · 6 mapsedge Yawara +15%Yawara · 18 maps
Dust2Grêmio ban
43%50%
Grêmio · 10 mapsedge Yawara +7%Yawara · 12 maps
Ancientpossible decider
44%53%
Grêmio · 5 mapsedge Yawara +9%Yawara · 13 maps
InfernoGrêmio pick
57%57%
Grêmio · 10 mapsnearly even +0%Yawara · 3 maps
CacheYawara ban
40%20%
Grêmio · 6 mapsedge Grêmio +20%Yawara · 6 maps
AnubisGrêmio ban
50%57%
Grêmio · 0 mapsedge Yawara +7%Yawara · 10 maps
NukeYawara ban
44%40%
Grêmio · 5 mapsnearly even +4%Yawara · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanGrêmio remove Anubis
2. BanYawara remove Nuke
3. PickGrêmio take Inferno
4. PickYawara take Mirage
5. BanYawara remove Cache
6. BanGrêmio remove Dust2
DeciderAncient (44% / 53%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction missed9:13
Grêmio 58%Yawara 42%
The model gave 58% on Grêmio — the map was taken by Yawara.
Mirageprediction missed13:11
Grêmio 31%Yawara 69%
The model gave 69% on Yawara — the map was taken by Grêmio.
Ancientprediction correct9:13
Grêmio 42%Yawara 58%
The model gave 58% on Yawara — the map was taken by Yawara.
Model check result
Model favoriteYawara · 55%
Series resultYawara 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 3