DFRAG Open Series 6 · BO3
result vs prediction
Ground Zero#139 in the world · win 2:0series probability
76%24%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Abyssal#165 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
NukeGround Zero pick
67%38%
Ground Zero · 11 mapsedge Ground Zero +29%Abyssal · 4 maps
Dust2Abyssal ban
44%50%
Ground Zero · 12 mapsedge Abyssal +6%Abyssal · 0 maps
MirageAbyssal pick
45%50%
Ground Zero · 7 mapsedge Abyssal +5%Abyssal · 4 maps
Infernopossible decider
38%50%
Ground Zero · 4 mapsedge Abyssal +12%Abyssal · 4 maps
AnubisAbyssal ban
45%50%
Ground Zero · 7 mapsedge Abyssal +5%Abyssal · 0 maps
OverpassGround Zero ban
50%50%
Ground Zero · 0 mapsnearly even +0%Abyssal · 2 maps
CacheGround Zero ban
50%60%
Ground Zero · 0 mapsedge Abyssal +10%Abyssal · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanGround Zero remove Cache
2. BanAbyssal remove Dust2
3. PickGround Zero take Nuke
4. PickAbyssal take Mirage
5. BanAbyssal remove Anubis
6. BanGround Zero remove Overpass
DeciderInferno (38% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction missed13:0
Ground Zero 42%Abyssal 58%
The model gave 58% on Abyssal — the map was taken by Ground Zero.
Dust2prediction missed13:11
Ground Zero 47%Abyssal 53%
The model gave 53% on Abyssal — the map was taken by Ground Zero.
Model check result
Model favoriteGround Zero · 76%
Series resultGround Zero 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map0 of 2