DFRAG Open Series 6 · BO3
result vs prediction
Ground Zero#139 in the world · win 2:0series probability
70%30%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Mindfreak#213 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
NukeGround Zero pick
73%40%
Ground Zero · 11 mapsedge Ground Zero +33%Mindfreak · 6 maps
Dust2Mindfreak ban
41%50%
Ground Zero · 13 mapsedge Mindfreak +9%Mindfreak · 0 maps
InfernoMindfreak pick
43%62%
Ground Zero · 3 mapsedge Mindfreak +19%Mindfreak · 9 maps
MirageGround Zero ban
55%56%
Ground Zero · 7 mapsnearly even -1%Mindfreak · 5 maps
Anubispossible decider
45%38%
Ground Zero · 7 mapsedge Ground Zero +7%Mindfreak · 4 maps
AncientGround Zero ban
40%50%
Ground Zero · 1 mapedge Mindfreak +10%Mindfreak · 0 maps
DefaultMindfreak ban
60%50%
Ground Zero · 1 mapedge Ground Zero +10%Mindfreak · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanGround Zero remove Ancient
2. BanMindfreak remove Dust2
3. PickGround Zero take Nuke
4. PickMindfreak take Inferno
5. BanMindfreak remove Default
6. BanGround Zero remove Mirage
DeciderAnubis (45% / 38%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction missed13:6
Ground Zero 29%Mindfreak 71%
The model gave 71% on Mindfreak — the map was taken by Ground Zero.
Dust2prediction missed13:6
Ground Zero 44%Mindfreak 56%
The model gave 56% on Mindfreak — the map was taken by Ground Zero.
Model check result
Model favoriteGround Zero · 70%
Series resultGround Zero 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map0 of 2