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DFRAG Open Series 5 · BO3
result vs prediction
Ground Zero#139 in the world · loss 1:2
series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Rooster#196 in the world · win 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Rooster pick
50%56%
Ground Zero · 6 mapsedge Rooster +6%Rooster · 5 maps
MirageRooster ban
58%57%
Ground Zero · 8 mapsnearly even +1%Rooster · 3 maps
NukeGround Zero pick
58%43%
Ground Zero · 8 mapsedge Ground Zero +15%Rooster · 3 maps
InfernoGround Zero ban
50%63%
Ground Zero · 4 mapsedge Rooster +13%Rooster · 4 maps
Anubispossible decider
43%67%
Ground Zero · 3 mapsedge Rooster +24%Rooster · 2 maps
OverpassGround Zero ban
50%29%
Ground Zero · 0 mapsedge Ground Zero +21%Rooster · 3 maps
DefaultRooster ban
50%33%
Ground Zero · 0 mapsedge Ground Zero +17%Rooster · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanGround Zero remove Overpass
2. BanRooster remove Mirage
3. PickGround Zero take Nuke
4. PickRooster take Dust2
5. BanRooster remove Default
6. BanGround Zero remove Inferno
DeciderAnubis (43% / 67%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction correct13:2
Ground Zero 68%Rooster 32%
The model gave 68% on Ground Zero — the map was taken by Ground Zero.
Anubisprediction correct11:13
Ground Zero 25%Rooster 75%
The model gave 75% on Rooster — the map was taken by Rooster.
Mirageprediction missed11:13
Ground Zero 51%Rooster 49%
The model gave 51% on Ground Zero — the map was taken by Rooster.
Model check result
Model favoriteGround Zero · 60%
Series resultRooster 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map2 of 3